As a species we seem remarkably poor at learning from experience. The past is not necessarily a guide to the future but it is always a source of lessons to be studied. Everyone agrees that we currently have a huge skill shortage in areas such as engineering and manufacturing and that has been brought about by not training enough young people from the 1980’s until today. A problem that is currently costing millions and will take years to fix. The lesson from this is that if we don’t take note then this is how the “professions” may bring about their own demise.
We know that AI is very good at doing entry level jobs and we are seeing many areas of finance, medicine, law and others making excellent use of what is a fantastic tool. The problem is this. Those are the jobs that, in the past, entry level people into the professions did in order to gain experience. When manufacturing stopped training apprentices and began relying on automation the immediate effect was positive. We saw an increase in productivity combined with a decrease in costs. We did not need people to do the entry level jobs and so we stopped training them. As time goes by the problem becomes clear. Those who were trained originally in the entry level jobs had moved up the career ladder to do things that automation couldn’t. Then the rot set in. Those people began to retire. The result was that experienced people have been leaving at a greater rate than they can be replaced because the generations that would have replaced them have not been trained and so do not exist.
As the “professions” were largely immune to this they carried on training at the entry and lower levels and so didn’t see the problem. Now, along comes AI. AI is doing to the “professions” what automation and lack of investment did to manufacturing. AI is doing the entry level jobs far better than any trainee and so what is happening? Answer: many of the professions are acting in the same way as manufacturers did 40 years ago. The use of AI is causing productivity to rise and costs to fall. Short term this is good news, but long term, it’s a different matter. Unless something is done, and fast, the professions will go the same way as manufacturing. Give it a few years and the experienced people will start dropping out of the system and there will not be the upcoming generations to replace them. Yes, AI will have moved on, and in ways we cannot imagine, but there will always be things where we need a sentient human to think in ways that only experienced humans can.
If we are sensible we will invest the benefits of AI today in the future and reap the benefits. My fear, and the evidence suggests I may well be right, is that we won’t, and this is how the “professions” may bring about their own demise.
If you are interested in long term effectiveness for your business rather than just short term quick wins then please Contact