I would like to take credit for this method but it is actually based on an idea from Rory Sutherland of Ogilvy. However, I have taken his idea and want to show you how to predict the future based on using this method.
The problem with most methods of trying to predict the future is that they assume two things:
First, the future will look something like the past.
Second, things are based on logic.
These are both completely wrong
This despite the fact that most market analysts, financial analysts, banks and other institutions cling to them as a method looking of looking forward, like a drowning man clinging to a straw. If you want to predict the future of your product, service or indeed your job then try this:
Let’s take a product. Write a list of all the things that you logically believe to be true about that product. For example:
- Nobody will pay more than “x” for …..
- Only sector “y” will buy product …..
- There will always be a demand for “z” because people will always want ….
- The demand for product ….. is based on…..
You get the idea. I’m sure you can think of many more for your product, service or job.
Now let’s assume we are in the year 2000 and we are in the watch market:
Nobody will pay more than £100 for an every day watch – The Apple Watch which is worn by millions every day costs many hundreds of pounds.
Only techy people will buy a watch that is connected to the internet and receives and sends messages, no ordinary person will want one. – The Apple Watch is mass market.
There will always be a demand for watches because people will always need to tell the time – the watch market collapsed when the mobile phone with a clock on it came along.
The demand for watches is based on the fact that people want to know the time – the market for high end watches is actually based on status and is closer to the jewellery market. The market for the Apple Watch is definitely not based on people wanting to tell the time.
Here are more examples:
There will always be a demand for accountants and bookkeepers as there will always be businesses – AI and Making Tax Digital are making many of these jobs redundant. The use of simple accounting software for small businesses has dramatically reduced the demand for bookkeepers.
People need to travel on business – Zoom and Teams have put paid to much of this.
There will always be a demand for office space – Flexible working and WFH
etc. etc. etc.
Now employ the same logic when looking at the future of your job, product or service:
There will always be a demand for cars as people need to travel – will there? what might replace them?
There will always be a need for electricity to power things – maybe!!!
There will always be a demand for doctors as people always get sick – AI ?
Think about all the things that seem totally illogical at the moment. Spot the one that everyone is ignoring and you may well have found how to predict the future. It’s not easy, but one thing is 100% true, the future is not based on the past. What is indispensable today may well be completely unnecessary in two, three or four years time.
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